Divergent Trajectories of Urban Development in 287 Chinese Cities

The urbanization and motorization of Chinese cities follow divergent trajectories. However, how the diversity occurred, particularly within the small and medium cities, is understudied. Using panel data from 287 cities from 2001 to 2014 and a time-series clustering method, this study identified representative trajectories along which Chinese cities were urbanized and motorized. Urbanization was measured by scale, wealth, urban form, and infrastructure; motorization by automobile, taxi, bus numbers, and subway lines. Chinese cities were classified into four clusters: 23 Cluster-1 cities were the large cities with heavy rails; 41 Cluster-2 cities were the low-density wealthy cities with auto-oriented mobility; 134 Cluster-3 cities were the low-density medium-wealth cities with moderate mobility levels; and 89 Cluster-4 cities were the high-density poor cities with lowest mobility levels. Comparing to the traditional three-tier structure, exclusively based on political tiers, the four-cluster structure respects the multi-dimensional nature of cities and reflects the essential diversities among the medium and small cities. While political tiers remain critical, other features including scale, density, infrastructure, and mobility patterns are also important: scale differentiates Cluster-1 from others; low density characterizes Clusters 2 and 3; heavy rail and auto-oriented mobility respectively identify Clusters 1 and 2. We contribute to China’s urban development literature by explicitly examining the temporal dimension, analyzing both urbanization and motorization, and incorporating all the medium and small cities in China. The distinct patterns of Clusters 2, 3, and 4 are evident, and the variation within them were as important as that between them and large cities.