The Streets Speak: Unravelling the Impact of Austerity on Public Protests during the the Great Recession

This paper examines the impact of austerity policy announcements on protest mobilisation in 16 European countries during the Great Recession. It argues that austerity policies politicised grievances and enabled blame attribution, while institutional constraints and protest fatigue dampened reactions to later policies. Using monthly protest event data and systematically coded austerity policy announcements, the study utilises an interrupted time series design to analyse austerity announcements as shocks to protest levels. The findings indicate that earlier austerity announcements significantly increased economic protest levels, while later announcements had no effect or even decreased protest. Furthermore, the impact of austerity on protest was conditioned by economic and political contexts. Austerity had a larger effect when accompanied by rising unemployment, worsening household finances, external actor involvement, and higher prior protest levels. The study contributes to understanding varied public reactions to austerity and the dynamics between economic crisis, government policies, and contentious politics.