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Meta-Analysis of E-Cigarette Price Elasticity

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  • Selya, Arielle
  • Foxon, Floe
  • Chandra, Siddharth
  • Nealer, Erin

Abstract

Background: Adoption of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) has the potential to impact the prevalence of combusted cigarette use. Understanding whether and how much ENDS act as economic substitutes for cigarettes helps inform tobacco policy to minimize harm. Objectives: The goals of this study are to review the own-price elasticity of ENDS, the cross-price elasticity of ENDS with respect to cigarette price (including taxes), and the cross-price elasticity of cigarettes with respect to ENDS price. Methods: Pre-registered (OSF: https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/9HBWQ) systematic review and meta-analysis following Cochrane review guidelines where applicable. Articles were sourced from PubMed and Google Scholar; inclusion criteria were primary sources of all study designs and groups of participants with relevant elasticity outcomes. Where appropriate, effects were combined in random-effects models with the two-step DerSimonian and Laird estimator. Other articles were reviewed narratively. Results: 23 studies were retained. 13 were appropriate for meta-analysis. A 10% increase in ENDS price is associated with an 11.5% (9.7%–13.4%) decrease in ENDS sales/purchases, and also decreased ENDS use prevalence. A 10% increase in cigarette price is associated with a 9.8% (5.7%–13.8%) increase in ENDS sales/purchases, and also increased ENDS use prevalence. A 10% increase in ENDS price is non-significantly associated with a 1.1% (-0.5%–2.8%) increase in cigarette sales/purchases, and increased ENDS price was associated with increased smoking prevalence, propensity, and number of cigarettes smoked. Discussion: These data suggest ENDS are substitutes for cigarettes. Taxing cigarettes encourages switching away from smoking. More research is needed to clarify the association between ENDS price and cigarette demand. Results are limited by imprecision due to low number of studies. Conclusions: Policymakers should consider using taxation to influence behavior and tax tobacco products in proportion to their harm.

Suggested Citation

  • Selya, Arielle & Foxon, Floe & Chandra, Siddharth & Nealer, Erin, 2022. "Meta-Analysis of E-Cigarette Price Elasticity," OSF Preprints 4ub2r_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:4ub2r_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/4ub2r_v1
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