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Nonlinear control of Covid-19 pandemic based on the SIRD model

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  • Rituraj, Rituraj
  • Ghadami, Seyyed Mostafa
  • Seyyedi, Seyyed Masoud

Abstract

In the last month of 2019, a new version of Corona disease was observed in Wuhan (China) which is known as Covid-19. Several models have been proposed to predict disease treatment. The SIR model is considered one of the simplest models for the prediction of pandemic disease. This means susceptible (S), infected (I), and recovered (R) populations. The SIRD model is yet another method that includes one more equation, i.e., the number of deaths (D). This paper proposed a control law for the first time to prevent the progression of the disease. The proposed control law is based on the SIRD model that is determined using two methods, i.e., the input-state feedback linearization method and the input-output feedback linearization method for the nonlinear modeling of Covid-19. The goal of control in this model is to reduce the percentage or number of infected people and the number of deaths due to Covid-19 disease. Simulation results show that the feedback linearization methods can have positive results in a significant reduction in unfurl of Covid-19. Delay in quarantine of infected people and constant percentage of people who should be quarantined are investigated as two important parameters. Results show that the percentage of infected people decreases 96.3 % and the percentage of deaths decreases 93.6 % when delay in quarantine equals 7 weeks.

Suggested Citation

  • Rituraj, Rituraj & Ghadami, Seyyed Mostafa & Seyyedi, Seyyed Masoud, 2022. "Nonlinear control of Covid-19 pandemic based on the SIRD model," OSF Preprints 3acv9, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:3acv9
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/3acv9
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    1. Mohammad Reza Mahmoudi & Amir Mosavi, 2022. "Cyclocopula Technique To Study The Relationship Between Two Cyclostationary Time Series With Fractional Brownian Motion Errors," FRACTALS (fractals), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 30(05), pages 1-9, August.
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