Decadal land-use/land-cover and land surface temperature change in Dubai and implications on the urban heat island effect: A preliminary assessment

The emirate of Dubai is the most populous and most developed of the seven emirates that comprise the United Arab Emirates. By the end of the 20th century, the emirate had shifted its economy from being primarily petroleum-based to a focus on tourism and financial services. The emirate’s capital, also named Dubai, has been growing at a rapid pace; the population in 1999 was 862,000 inhabitants, and increased in ten years to 1.8 million. In this letter, I evaluate the extent of land-use and land-cover, and land surface temperature change between 1999 and 2009. Landsat satellite images from the month of September 1999 and 2009 were used in this study. Both images were classified using spectral information divergence to measure the discrepancy of probabilistic behaviors between spectral signatures of different surfaces in the study area. Changes in land cover between 1999 and 2009 were quantified using post-classification analysis in a geographic information system. The results have shown a 76.11 percent change in land cover and a 1.75 Celsius average increase in land surface temperature over the 10-year study period. The composition of land cover features significantly influence the magnitude of land surface temperature and the percent cover of stabilized land and impervious surfaces have had the most substantial affect. In contrast, the percentage of vegetation cover is the most essential driver that alleviates land surface and ambient temperature. Keeping the cooling effects of urban greenery in perspective, I suggest that their proper management can directly mitigate the urban heat island effect in Dubai.