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Does Central Bank Intervention Influence the Probability of a Speculative Attack? Evidence from the EMS

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Abstract

This paper studies the effects of central bank intervention during the 1992- 1993 EMS crises on the D-mark/peseta and D-mark/French franc exchange rate. In particular, it is analyzed how interventions affected the probability of a speculative attack and market participants’ expectations about realignments. The findings provide evidence that interventions seem to have increased both the expected realignment rate and the probability of a speculative attack. Furthermore, there is some evidence that this effect arises for publicly known but not for secret interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Helmut Stix, 2002. "Does Central Bank Intervention Influence the Probability of a Speculative Attack? Evidence from the EMS," Working Papers 80, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:80
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    File URL: https://www.oenb.at/dam/jcr:47e7a378-4d58-4bc4-b511-f5ff22e51f19/wp80_tcm16-6173.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Brandner, Peter & Grech, Harald & Stix, Helmut, 2006. "The effectiveness of central bank intervention in the EMS: The post 1993 experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 580-597, June.
    2. Aleš Bulíø, 2005. "Liberalized Markets Have More Stable Exchange Rates: Short-Run Evidence from Four Transition Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 55(5-6), pages 206-231, May.
    3. Kiss M., Norbert, 2005. "A jegybanki devizapiaci intervenció hatékonysága. Nemzetközi tapasztalatok és elméleti megfontolások [Effectiveness of central-bank intervention on foreign-exchange markets. International experienc," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 846-872.
    4. Gonzalo Llosa & Vicente Tuesta & Marco Vega, 2006. "A BVAR Forecasting Model for Peruvian Inflation," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 117-141, July-Dece.
    5. Kenneth Coates, 2006. "Measurement Problems in Household International Remittances," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 95-115, July-Dece.
    6. Isabelle Strauss-Kahn, 2006. "Secrecy in Foreign exchange Interventions: the Point of View of a Practitioner in a European Context," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 159-179, July-Dece.
    7. Trevor Campbell, 2006. "The Impact of Barbados’ Investment Climate on its Foreign Direct Investment Inflows," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 143-157, July-Dece.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign Exchange Intervention; European Monetary System; Markov Switching;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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