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US Monetary Policy in a Globalized World

Author

Listed:
  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma

    (Vienna University of Economics and Business, Institute for Fiscal and Monetary Policy)

  • Gernot Doppelhofer

    (Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)

  • Martin Feldkircher

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Foreign Research Division)

  • Florian Huber

    (Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU))

Abstract

We analyze the interaction between monetary policy in the US and the global economy proposing a new class of Bayesian global vector autoregressive models that accounts for time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility (TVP-SV-GVAR). We find that a contractionary US monetary policy shock leads to a persistent fall in international output, a drop in global inflation rates, a rise in international interest rates and a strengthening of the US dollar in real terms. There is considerable evidence for heterogeneity of spillovers across countries, as well as for changes in the transmission of monetary policy shocks over time. We also examine the reverse question, namely how US monetary policy responds to international shocks. Here we find that US short-term rates decrease significantly in response to a monetary policy tightening abroad or a negative shock to foreign real GDP growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Gernot Doppelhofer & Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2016. "US Monetary Policy in a Globalized World," Working Papers 205, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:205
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    Cited by:

    1. Hajek, Jan & Horvath, Roman, 2018. "International spillovers of (un)conventional monetary policy: The effect of the ECB and the US Fed on non-euro EU countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 91-105.
    2. Huber, Florian & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2017. "The shortage of safe assets in the US investment portfolio: Some international evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 318-336.
    3. Markus Eller & Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber, 2017. "How would a fiscal shock in Germany affect other European countries? Evidence from a Bayesian GVAR model with sign restrictions," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 54-77.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global vector autoregression; time-varying parameters; stochastic volatility; monetary policy; international spillovers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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