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How Likely is Contagion in Financial Networks?

Author

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  • Paul Glasserman

    (Office of Financial Research)

  • H. Peyton Young

Abstract

Interconnections among financial institutions create potential channels for contagion and amplification of shocks to the financial system. We estimate the extent to which interconnections increase expected losses, with minimal information about network topology, under a wide range of shock distributions. Expected losses from network effects are small without substantial heterogeneity in bank sizes and a high degree of reliance on interbank funding. They are also small unless shocks are magnified by some mechanism beyond simple spillover effects; these include bankruptcy costs, fire sales, and mark-to-market revaluations of assets. We illustrate the results with data on the European banking system.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Glasserman & H. Peyton Young, 2013. "How Likely is Contagion in Financial Networks?," Working Papers 13-06, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury, revised 12 Apr 2017.
  • Handle: RePEc:ofr:wpaper:13-06
    as

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    File URL: https://www.financialresearch.gov/working-papers/files/OFRwp0009_GlassermanYoung_HowLikelyContagionFinancialNetworks.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

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    3. Doina PRODAN-PALADE, 2017. "Bankruptcy risk prediction models based on artificial neural networks," The Audit Financiar journal, Chamber of Financial Auditors of Romania, vol. 15(147), pages 418-418.
    4. Hamed Amini & Andreea Minca, 2014. "Inhomogeneous Financial Networks and Contagious Links," Working Papers hal-01081559, HAL.
    5. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Stavroula Yfanti & Menelaos Karanasos & Jiaying Wu, 2024. "Financial integration and European tourism stocks," Chapters, in: Guglielmo M. Caporale (ed.), Handbook of Financial Integration, chapter 21, pages 495-538, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Yfanti, Stavroula & Karanasos, Menelaos & Zopounidis, Constantin & Christopoulos, Apostolos, 2023. "Corporate credit risk counter-cyclical interdependence: A systematic analysis of cross-border and cross-sector correlation dynamics," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(2), pages 813-831.
    7. Andrea Aguiar & Rick Bookstaber & Thomas Wipf, 2014. "A Map of Funding Durability and Risk," Working Papers 14-03, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    8. Mardi Dungey & Eric Renault, 2018. "Identifying contagion," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 227-250, March.
    9. Matthew Elliott & Benjamin Golub & Matthew O. Jackson, 2014. "Financial Networks and Contagion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(10), pages 3115-3153, October.
    10. Stafylas, Dimitrios & Andrikopoulos, Athanasios & Tolikas, Konstantinos, 2023. "Hedge fund performance persistence under different business cycles and stock market regimes," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    11. Rama Cont & Andreea Minca, 2016. "Credit default swaps and systemic risk," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 247(2), pages 523-547, December.
    12. Mardi Dungey & Jet Holloway & Abdullah Yalaman & Wenying Yao, 2022. "Characterizing financial crises using high-frequency data," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 743-760, April.
    13. Tareq Saeed & Elie Bouri & Dang Khoa Tran, 2020. "Hedging Strategies of Green Assets against Dirty Energy Assets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-17, June.

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    Keywords

    systemic risk; contagion; financial network;
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