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Forecasting Airport Demand: Review of UK Airports Commission Forecasts and Scenarios

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Abstract

The Airports Commission requires an external view on whether its forecasts yield plausible results, taking into account the ways in which the future of the aviation market may develop, prompted by comments received during stakeholder consultations on the forecasts and scenarios developed. This report summarises a review of the forecasts prepared by the International Transport Forum together with independent experts. The report provide views on the appropriateness of the outputs produced, on the most robust central scenarios and on any scenario results that should be treated with particular caution. it also examines one aspect of the methodology used in developing the baseline forecast, the module allocating traffic between London’s airports.

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  • Itf, 2015. "Forecasting Airport Demand: Review of UK Airports Commission Forecasts and Scenarios," International Transport Forum Policy Papers 13, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:itfaac:13-en
    DOI: 10.1787/5jlwvz9c246k-en
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    Cited by:

    1. Glenn Lyons & Greg Marsden, 2021. "Opening out and closing down: the treatment of uncertainty in transport planning’s forecasting paradigm," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 595-616, April.

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