Insights for designing mitigation elements in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)

The Paris Agreement is underpinned by Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in which Parties set out how they plan to support the Agreement’s long-term temperature goal. Parties are to submit their next NDCs by early 2025, informed by the first global stocktake (GST1). The GST1 sets out key signals and a series of mitigation focused calls in line with 1.5°C pathways that can guide the next generation of NDCs. This paper explores how Parties can prepare enhanced NDCs that take forward GST1 outcomes on mitigation and relevant provisions on NDCs, building on lessons learned from successive NDCs and available follow-up opportunities to support this process. Insights from experiences highlight the interlinkages between enhancing NDC ambition and implementation. Ambitious NDCs underpinned by robust implementation plans and accompanying investment plans can ensure NDCs are action oriented, implementation ready and investable. At the same time, adopting whole-of-government, whole-of-society approaches to NDCs can foster a sense of national ownership and increase social acceptance, leading to more ambitious NDCs and support subsequent implementation. The paper also explores potential guidance that could be relevant for negotiations on NDC features in 2024. While recognising the nationally determined character of NDCs, Parties could use these negotiations to provide clarity on new issues that have emerged since the Paris Agreement was adopted and on existing elements that could benefit from clarification. When addressing negotiations on NDC features, Parties may also want to consider a longer-term perspective beyond the next NDCs and links with other relevant negotiation processes on reporting and transparency.