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Climate change mitigation scenarios for financial sector target setting and alignment assessment: A stocktake and analysis of their Paris-consistency, practicality and assumptions

Author

Listed:
  • Jolien Noels
  • Coline Pouille
  • Raphaël Jachnik
  • Marcia Rocha

Abstract

Climate change mitigation scenarios are a key forward-looking input for a range of financial sector analyses and assessments. The inaccurate use of mitigation scenarios can, however, contribute to unintended incentives, environmental integrity concerns, and greenwashing risks. This paper aims to inform climate change mitigation scenario providers, financial sector participants and stakeholders, and climate policymakers on how they may contribute to improved use of scenarios for the purposes of target setting and alignment assessments in the financial sector. To do so, the paper analyses climate change mitigation scenarios currently used for these purposes, based on the following analytical dimensions: consistency with the Paris Agreement, practicality, and underlying assumptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Jolien Noels & Coline Pouille & Raphaël Jachnik & Marcia Rocha, 2023. "Climate change mitigation scenarios for financial sector target setting and alignment assessment: A stocktake and analysis of their Paris-consistency, practicality and assumptions," OECD Environment Working Papers 223, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:envaaa:223-en
    DOI: 10.1787/bcd25b82-en
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate alignment assessments; Climate change mitigation scenarios; finance; greenhouse gas emissions; investment; net zero target setting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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