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Future trends in health care expenditure: A modelling framework for cross-country forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Alberto Marino

    (OECD)

  • David Morgan

    (OECD)

  • Luca Lorenzoni

    (OECD)

  • Chris James

    (OECD)

Abstract

Across the OECD, healthcare spending has typically outpaced economic growth in recent decades. While such spending has improved health outcomes, there are concerns about the financial sustainability of this upward trend, particularly as healthcare systems are predominantly funded from public resources in most OECD countries. To better explore this financial sustainability challenge, many countries and international institutions have developed forecasting models to project growth in future healthcare expenditure.Despite methodological differences between forecasting approaches, a common set of healthcare spending drivers can be identified. Demographic factors, rising incomes, technological progress, productivity in the healthcare sector compared to the general economy (Baumol’s cost disease) and associated healthcare policies have all been shown to be key determinants of healthcare spending.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Marino & David Morgan & Luca Lorenzoni & Chris James, 2017. "Future trends in health care expenditure: A modelling framework for cross-country forecasts," OECD Health Working Papers 95, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:elsaad:95-en
    DOI: 10.1787/247995bb-en
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    Cited by:

    1. Armel Ngami & Thomas Seegmuller, 2021. "Pollution and growth: The role of pension in the efficiency of health and environmental policies," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 17(4), pages 390-415, December.
    2. Maynou, Laia & Street, Andrew & García−Altés, Anna, 2023. "Living longer in declining health: Factors driving healthcare costs among older people," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 327(C).
    3. Carsten Colombier & Thomas Braendle, 2018. "Healthcare expenditure and fiscal sustainability: evidence from Switzerland," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 42(3), pages 279-301.
    4. Wren, Maev-Ann & FitzPatrick, Aoife, 2020. "How does Irish healthcare expenditure compare internationally?," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS114.
    5. Walsh, Brendan & Keegan, Conor & Brick, Aoife & Connolly, Sheelah & Bergin, Adele & Wren, Maev-Ann & Lyons, Seán & Hill, Leonie & Smith, Samantha, 2021. "Projections of expenditure for primary, community and long-term care Ireland, 2019–2035, based on the Hippocrates model," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS126.
    6. Alessandra Cepparulo & Luisa Giuriato, 2022. "The residential healthcare for the elderly in Italy: some considerations for post-COVID-19 policies," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 23(4), pages 671-685, June.
    7. Joana Cima & Alvaro S Almeida, 2018. "Health Expenditure, GDP Growth and the Financial Crisis: A Panel Data Analysis for OECD European Countries," FEP Working Papers 602, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    8. Keegan, Conor & Brick, Aoife & Bergin, Adele & Wren, Maev-Ann & Whyte, Richard & Henry, Edward, 2020. "Projections of expenditure for public hospitals in Ireland, 2018–2035, based on the Hippocrates Model," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS117.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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