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Modelling life trajectories of body-mass index

Author

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  • Sabine Vuik

    (OECD)

  • Michele Cecchini

    (OECD)

Abstract

Body-mass index (BMI) tends to follow a typical trajectory over the life-course of an individual, increasing in early life while decreasing after middle age. To be able to reflect these trends in the OECD Strategic Public Health Planning for Non-Communicable Diseases (SPHeP-NCDs) model, this paper analyses longitudinal BMI data from 22 countries to build a mixed, autoregressive model predicting an individual’s BMI based on their sex, age and previous BMI. The resulting model shows how young people are likely to see an increase in BMI year-on-year, even if they already have overweight or obesity. It also shows that that a healthy weight in childhood does not protect against future overweight, as BMI continues to increase well into adulthood even for children who start off with a healthy weight. The results of this analysis will be incorporated in the OECD SPHeP NCDs model, to better simulate the longer-term impact of interventions, in particular interventions targeting childhood obesity.

Suggested Citation

  • Sabine Vuik & Michele Cecchini, 2021. "Modelling life trajectories of body-mass index," OECD Health Working Papers 132, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:elsaad:132-en
    DOI: 10.1787/0425d231-en
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    Keywords

    BMI; Public Health;

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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