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Projecting the Occupational Structure of Employment in OECD Countries

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  • Gerald Hughes

Abstract

Forecasts of employment by occupation have been made in several OECD countries since the early 1950s. Medium to long-term projections are now made in most OECD countries, and a number of countries publish them regularly. This paper by Gerald Hughes, of the Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin, examines how their objectives, methods and uses have changed over the last three decades. It covers technical issues such as the standard method of projection using statistics for employment cross-classified by industry and occupation, the integration of information from other sources such as surveys of employer expectations, the confrontation of employment forecasts with separate models of labour supply, and the competing "rate of return" approach to investment in human capital. It also considers management issues such as the institutional status of the bodies that make forecasts, and methods of disseminating the results to training institutions, career advisers and other users.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerald Hughes, 1993. "Projecting the Occupational Structure of Employment in OECD Countries," OECD Labour Market and Social Policy Occasional Papers 10, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:elsaaa:10-en
    DOI: 10.1787/6d4d071d-en
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    Cited by:

    1. Willems, E., 1996. "Manpower forecasting and modelling replacement demand: an overview," ROA Working Paper 4E, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
    2. Martina Lubyová & Miroslav Štefánik & Pavol Baboš & Daniel Gerbery & Veronika Hvozdíková & Katarína Karasová & Ivan Lichner & Tomáš Miklošovic & Marek Radvanský & Eva Rublíková & Ivana Studená, . "Labour Market in Slovakia 2017+," Books, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, edition 1, number 003.
    3. Willems E., 1996. "Manpower Forecasting and Modelling Replacement Demand: An Overview," ROA Working Paper 004, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
    4. Grip,A.,de & Heijke,H., 1998. "Beyond Manpower Planning: ROA's Labour Market Model and its Forecasts to 2002," ROA Working Paper 006, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
    5. Jasmin Thomas, 2015. "Review of Best Practices in Labour Market Forecasting with an Application to the Canadian Aboriginal Population," CSLS Research Reports 2015-16, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.

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