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Simulation des effets macro-économiques d'une forte baisse des prix pétroliers

Author

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  • Flemming Larsen

    (OCDE)

  • John Llewellyn

    (OCDE)

Abstract

Devant le recul sensible de la demande de pétrole des pays de l'OPEP, que l'on observe depuis 1980, les prix internationaux en dollars du pétrole ont fléchi légèrement en 1981 et en 1982 pour chuter nettement au début de 1983. La présente note s'appuie sur des simulations réalisées à partir du modèle de l'économie mondiale, INTERLINK, du Secrétariat de l'OCDE, pour examiner les facteurs qui détermineront les principales conséquences macro-économiques de la baisse des prix du pétrole pour la zone de l'OCDE. Les pays importateurs nets de pétrole en retireront trois avantages non négligeables: la poursuite du recul de l'inflation, le redressement de la balance des opérations courantes et l'augmentation des revenus réels. L'incidence sur la production est moins sûre car elle dépend en partie de la confiance des entreprises et des changements induits dans l'orientation de la politique économique ...

Suggested Citation

  • Flemming Larsen & John Llewellyn, 1983. "Simulation des effets macro-économiques d'une forte baisse des prix pétroliers," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 8, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:8-fr
    DOI: 10.1787/230407205876
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    1. Livolant, Françoise, 1991. "Ordered phases of DNA in vivo and in vitro," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 176(1), pages 117-137.

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