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A Post-Mortem on Economic Outlook Projections

Author

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  • Vassiliki Koutsogeorgopoulou

Abstract

This paper reviews the accuracy of the OECD Economic Outlook projections — both “current year” and “year ahead” — for output growth, inflation and current account balances (as a percentage of GDP) for the major seven countries, as well as projections for world trade growth. The sample period differs somewhat between the variables, depending on data availability, but it runs until 1998 in all cases. Several evaluation criteria were used to assess the accuracy of the OECD Economic Outlook projections. These include an inspection of projection error summary statistics; comparisons with “naive” alternative forecasts; statistical tests for unbiasedness and efficiency; and testing for directional accuracy. In addition, the paper provides an examination of the performance of OECD Economic Outlook projections over different time periods. The findings suggest that, on the basis of the conventional statistical criteria, the current year projections outperform the year ahead projections ... Cet article analyse la précision des prévisions pour l’année courante et pour l’année suivante des Perspectives Économiques de l’OCDE pour la croissance du PIB, l’inflation, et la balance courante (en pourcentage du PIB) pour les 7 pays les plus importants, aussi que les prévisions pour la croissance du commerce international. La période d’analyse varie selon la variable en question, en fonction de la disponibilité des données, jusqu’en 1998 dans tous les cas. Plusieurs critères ont été utilisés pour évaluer la précision des prévisions, y compris les statistiques d’erreur de projection, les comparaisons avec des prévisions “naïves”, les tests statistiques de biais et d’efficience, et les tests de validité directionnelle. En outre, l’article examine la performance des prévisions des Perspectives Économiques de l’OCDE sur différentes périodes de temps. Les résultats montrent que, basées sur des critères statistiques conventionnels, les prévisions pour l’année courante sont ...

Suggested Citation

  • Vassiliki Koutsogeorgopoulou, 2000. "A Post-Mortem on Economic Outlook Projections," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 274, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:274-en
    DOI: 10.1787/351822846618
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:17:y:2002:i:35:p:409-448 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2005. "A Dual Policy Paradox: Why Have Trade and Immigration Policies Always Differed in Labor-Scarce Economies," NBER Working Papers 11866, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. John Hassler & José V. Rodríguez Mora & Kjetil Storesletten & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2005. "A Positive Theory Of Geographic Mobility And Social Insurance," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(1), pages 263-303, February.
    4. Bourmpoula, Evangelia. & Wieser, Christina., 2014. "An accuracy assessment of the global employment trends' unemployment rate forecasts," ILO Working Papers 994888903402676, International Labour Organization.
    5. Chinn, Menzie & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2003. "The Euro Area and World Interest Rates," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt9823140f, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    6. Bryan Campbell & Steve Murphy, 2006. "The Recent Performance of the Canadian Forecasting Industry," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 32(1), pages 23-40, March.
    7. Krkoska, Libor & Teksoz, Utku, 2009. "How reliable are forecasts of GDP growth and inflation for countries with limited coverage?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 376-388, December.
    8. Grant Allan, 2012. "Evaluating the usefulness of forecasts of relative growth," Working Papers 1214, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    9. A Börsch-Supan & A Brugiavini, 2001. "Savings: the policy debate in Europe," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 17(1), pages 116-143, Spring.
    10. Bourmpoula, Evangelia. & Wieser, Christina., 2014. "An accuracy assessment of the global employment trends' unemployment rate forecasts," Global Employment Trends Reports 994888903402676, International Labour Office, Economic and Labour Market Analysis Department.
    11. Ildeberta Abreu, 2011. "International organisations’ vs. private analysts’ forecasts: an evaluation," Working Papers w201120, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    12. Olafsdottir, Katrin, 2006. "Úttekt á efnahagsspám Þjóðhagsstofnunar fyrir árin 1981-2002 [The accuracy of the National Economic Institute‘s forecasts 1981-2002]," MPRA Paper 18257, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Roberto Perotti & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2002. "Fiscal Policy, Profits, and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 571-589, June.
    14. Mihaela SIMIONESCU, 2015. "The Evaluation of Global Accuracy of Romanian Inflation Rate Predictions Using Mahalanobis Distance," Management Dynamics in the Knowledge Economy, College of Management, National University of Political Studies and Public Administration, vol. 3(1), pages 133-149, March.
    15. Krkoska, Libor & Teksoz, Utku, 2007. "Accuracy of GDP growth forecasts for transition countries: Ten years of forecasting assessed," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 29-45.
    16. Mihaela SIMIONESCU, 2014. "Improving The Inflation Rate Forecasts Of Romanian Experts Using A Fixed-Effects Models Approach," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 13, pages 87-102, June.
    17. repec:bla:ecpoli:v:17:y:2002:i:35:p:409-448 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Chinn, Menzie David & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2003. "The Euro Area and World Interest Rates," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt2nb2h4zr, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    19. repec:ilo:ilowps:488890 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Chinn, Menzie David & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2003. "The Euro Area and World Interest Rates," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt2nb2h4zr, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    21. Olafsdottir, Katrin & Sigurdsson, Kari, 2007. "Hversu vel tekst til með verðbólguspár greiningardeilda? [How accurate are the inflation forecasts published by the commercial banks?]," MPRA Paper 18288, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Jef Vuchelen & Maria-Isabel Gutierrez, 2005. "Do the OECD 24 month horizon growth forecasts for the G7-countries contain information?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(8), pages 855-862.
    23. Vuchelen, Jef & Gutierrez, Maria-Isabel, 2005. "A direct test of the information content of the OECD growth forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 103-117.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    analyse d'erreur de prévision; biais et efficience; error analysis; forecasting accuracy; précision des prévisions; unbiasedness and efficiency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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