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The OECD potential output estimation methodology

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Chalaux
  • Yvan Guillemette

Abstract

This paper describes the methodology used in the OECD Economics Department to produce historical estimates and short-run projections of potential output. These estimates are used mainly in the OECD Economic Outlook, in country surveys and as starting point for long-run scenarios. Total-economy potential output is modelled using a constant-returns-to-scale Cobb-Douglas production function with fixed factor shares. The three main inputs are labour, fixed capital excluding housing and labour efficiency, the latter obtained as a decomposition residual. The trend unemployment rate is estimated by Kalman filtering within a forward-looking Phillips curve. Other trend components are obtained by HP-filtering but labour efficiency and the labour force participation rate are cyclically adjusted before filtering to help alleviate the end-point problem associated with filters. This pre-filtering cyclical adjustment is especially helpful at cyclical turning points. It helps to lower the cyclicality of potential output as well as the extent of future revisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Chalaux & Yvan Guillemette, 2019. "The OECD potential output estimation methodology," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1563, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1563-en
    DOI: 10.1787/4357c723-en
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    Cited by:

    1. Brand, Claus & Obstbaum, Meri & Coenen, Günter & Sondermann, David & Lydon, Reamonn & Ajevskis, Viktors & Hammermann, Felix & Angino, Siria & Hernborg, Nils & Basso, Henrique & Hertweck, Matthias & Bi, 2021. "Employment and the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 275, European Central Bank.
    2. M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2023. "Slowing Growth: More Than a Rough Patch," CAMA Working Papers 2023-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Davide Fantino & Sara Formai & Alessandro Mistretta, 2021. "Firm characteristics and potential output: a growth accounting approach," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 616, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Fatás, Antonio & Singh, Sanjay R., 2024. "Supply or demand? Policy makers’ confusion in the presence of hysteresis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    5. Federico Bassi, 2020. "Chronic Excess Capacity and Unemployment Hysteresis in EU Countries. A Structural Approach," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def091, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    6. S. N. Alpysbaeva & Sh. Zh. Shuneev & N. N. Zhanakova & A. A. Bakdolotov, 2021. "Potential GDP Modeling and Output Gap Estimation as a Basis for Countercyclical Fiscal Policy in Kazakhstan," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 445-453, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital stock; labour efficiency; NAIRU; output gap; potential growth; potential output;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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