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Labour supply of older people in advanced economies: the impact of changes to statutory retirement ages

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Geppert
  • Yvan Guillemette
  • Hermes Morgavi
  • David Turner

Abstract

A decomposition of changes to participation rates of 55-to-74 year-olds between 2002 and 2017 based on an estimated equation attributes more than two thirds of the median increase (of 10.9 percentage points) to rising life expectancy and educational attainment. About 1 percentage point is attributable to changes in statutory retirement ages, although part of the reason these effects are not larger is that in most countries, statutory retirement ages have not kept pace with life expectancy. Although difficult to incorporate in the empirical framework, evidence of falling disability pension rolls and reduced sensitivity of old-age participation to the level of unemployment suggests that the tightening of alternative early retirement pathways through unemployment or disability schemes has been a major factor in the turnaround in the participation rate of older workers. Projections indicate that participation rates for 55-to-74 year-olds should keep rising through 2030, by 3.4 percentage points for the median country. Rising life expectancy and educational attainment are projected to make the largest contributions, more than compensating for the negative contribution of population ageing in most countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Geppert & Yvan Guillemette & Hermes Morgavi & David Turner, 2019. "Labour supply of older people in advanced economies: the impact of changes to statutory retirement ages," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1554, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1554-en
    DOI: 10.1787/b9f8d292-en
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    Cited by:

    1. Kanabar, Ricky & Nivalainen, Satu & Järnefelt, Noora, 2024. "‘Relabelling’ of individual early retirement pension in Finland: Application and behavioural responses using Finnish register data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 20-38.
    2. Cipriani, Giam Pietro & Fioroni, Tamara, 2024. "Human capital and pensions with endogenous fertility and retirement," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(2), pages 478-494, March.
    3. Kanabar, Ricky & Nivalainen, Satu & Järnefelt, Noora, 2023. "‘Relabelling’ of individual retirement pension in Finland: application and behavioural responses using Finnish register data," ISER Working Paper Series 2023-05, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    4. Anna Amilon & Mona Larsen, 2023. "Increasing retirement ages in Denmark: Do changes in gender, education, employment status and health matter?," European Journal of Ageing, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. David Turner & Hermes Morgavi, 2021. "Revisiting the effect of statutory pension ages on participation and the average age of retirement in OECD countries," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 45(2), pages 257-282.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    labour supply; older workers; Participation; statutory retirement ages;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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