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Carbon Taxes and CO2 Emissions Targets: Results from the IEA Model

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  • E. Lakis Vouyoukas

Abstract

This paper forms part of an OECD project which addresses the issue of the costs of reducing CO2 emissions by comparing the results from six global models of a set of standardised reduction scenarios. The IEA model is an econometric energy model with a projection horizon to 2005. One of the major conclusions to emerge from the results presented in this paper is that even seemingly moderate CO2 emissions reduction targets would require very high carbon taxes. The reasons for this are, firstly, that the carbon taxes need to be very high to have any material impact on final prices, especially those of transportation fuels and electricity, and, secondly, that most of the decline in emissions would have to come from a reduction in energy demand because the scope for substitution is very limited over a period of 10-15 years. The model also suggests that the required carbon taxes for any target are likely to be much lower in North America than in the Other OECD region, because North ... Ce document fait partie d'un projet de l'OCDE qui s'interroge sur les coûts de réduction des émissions de CO2 en comparant les résultats de six modèles globaux formés d'un ensemble de scénarios standardisés de réduction. Le modèle de l'AIE est un modèle économétrique d'énergie avec une projection à l'horizon de l'an 2005. Une des principales conclusions qui émerge des résultats présentés dans ce document est que même des objectifs de réduction d'émissions de CO2 apparemment modérés supposeraient des taxes sur le carbone très élevées. Ceci tient premièrement au fait que les taxes sur le carbone doivent être très élevées pour avoir un impact matériel quelconque sur les prix finaux, en particulier sur ceux des carburants utilisés dans les transports et sur ceux de l'électricité, et deuxièmement au fait que la majeure partie de la baisse des émissions devrait provenir d'une réduction de la demande d'énergie, les possibilités de substitution étant très limitées pour les 10 à 15 années à ...

Suggested Citation

  • E. Lakis Vouyoukas, 1992. "Carbon Taxes and CO2 Emissions Targets: Results from the IEA Model," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 114, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:114-en
    DOI: 10.1787/431042862776
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