IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/oec/dafaaf/4-en.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Critical Analysis of the Technical Assumptions of the Standard Micro Portfolio Approach to Sovereign Debt Management

Author

Listed:
  • Hans J. Blommestein

    (OECD)

  • Anja Hubig

    (Humboldt University of Berlin)

Abstract

This paper examines the analytical underpinnings of the standard micro portfolio approach to public debt management (PDM) that aims at minimising longer-term cash-flow based borrowing costs at an acceptable level of risk. The study concludes that two technical key assumptions need to hold for the standard micro portfolio approach to yield optimal (i.e. cost-minimising) results. We argue that these assumptions do not hold in the current borrowing environment characterized by fiscal dominance with complex links between PDM and monetary policy (MP). By using the principles of portfolio theory we demonstrate that in this borrowing environment, cost-risk optimality requires the use of a broader cost concept than employed in the standard micro portfolio approach. This new concept (referred to as effective borrowing costs) incorporates not only the cash flows of the debt portfolio itself, but also those related to primary borrowing requirements. The resulting broader cost measure includes therefore the interactions with the budget. Finally, the paper demonstrates that the standard cost-risk framework of the micro portfolio approach is nested within this new, broader cost concept.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans J. Blommestein & Anja Hubig, 2012. "A Critical Analysis of the Technical Assumptions of the Standard Micro Portfolio Approach to Sovereign Debt Management," OECD Working Papers on Sovereign Borrowing and Public Debt Management 4, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:dafaaf:4-en
    DOI: 10.1787/5k9fdwrf5rvj-en
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1787/5k9fdwrf5rvj-en
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1787/5k9fdwrf5rvj-en?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Oecd, 2011. "Principles and Trade-Offs when Making Issuance Choices in the UK," OECD Working Papers on Sovereign Borrowing and Public Debt Management 2, OECD Publishing.
    2. Wolswijk, Guido & de Haan, Jakob, 2005. "Government debt management in the euro area - recent theoretical developments and changes in practices," Occasional Paper Series 25, European Central Bank.
    3. Robert Barro, 2003. "Optimal Management of Indexed and Nominal Debt," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 4(1), pages 1-15, May.
    4. Stephen Cecchetti & Madhusudan Mohanty & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2011. "The real effects of debt," BIS Working Papers 352, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Goodhart, C. A. E., 2010. "The Changing Role of Central Banks," Working Papers 11-27, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    6. Lustig, Hanno & Sleet, Christopher & Yeltekin, Sevin, 2008. "Fiscal hedging with nominal assets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 710-727, May.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    8. Faraglia, Elisa & Marcet, Albert & Scott, Andrew, 2010. "In search of a theory of debt management," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(7), pages 821-836, October.
    9. Anonymous, 1963. "International Monetary Fund," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 500-504, April.
    10. Giammarioli, Nicola & Nickel, Christiane & Rother, Philipp & Vidal, Jean-Pierre, 2007. "Assessing fiscal soundness: theory and practice," Occasional Paper Series 56, European Central Bank.
    11. Anonymous, 1963. "International Monetary Fund," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(4), pages 976-977, October.
    12. Elisa Faraglia & Albert Marcet & Andrew Scott, 2008. "Fiscal Insurance and Debt Management in OECD Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(527), pages 363-386, March.
    13. Henry C. Simons, 1944. "On Debt Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 52(4), pages 356-356.
    14. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
    15. Buera, Francisco & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 2004. "Optimal maturity of government debt without state contingent bonds," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 531-554, April.
    16. Lex Hoogduin & Bahar Öztürk & Peter Wierts, 2011. "Public Debt Managers' Behaviour Interactions with Macro Policies," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 62(6), pages 1105-1122.
    17. Charles Goodhart, 2010. "The changing role of central banks," BIS Working Papers 326, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Emanuele Bacchiocchi & Alessandro Missale, 2005. "Managing Debt Stability," CESifo Working Paper Series 1388, CESifo.
    19. Blommestein, Hans, 2010. "Risk Management after the Great Crash," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 28, pages 1-19.
    20. Anonymous, 1963. "International Monetary Fund," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(1), pages 281-282, January.
    21. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    22. Massimo Bernaschi & Alessandro Missale & Davide Vergni, 2009. "Should Governments Minimize Debt Service Cost and Risk?," UNIMI - Research Papers in Economics, Business, and Statistics unimi-1097, Universitá degli Studi di Milano.
    23. John Lintner, 1965. "Security Prices, Risk, And Maximal Gains From Diversification," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 20(4), pages 587-615, December.
    24. George-Marios Angeletos, 2002. "Fiscal Policy with Noncontingent Debt and the Optimal Maturity Structure," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(3), pages 1105-1131.
    25. Yves Nosbusch, 2008. "Interest Costs and the Optimal Maturity Structure Of Government Debt," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(527), pages 477-498, March.
    26. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    27. repec:bla:jecsur:v:11:y:1997:i:3:p:235-65 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Alessandro Missale, 1997. "Managing the Public Debt: The Optimal Taxation Approach," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 235-265, September.
    29. Mr. Udaibir S Das & Jay Surti & Mr. Faisal Ahmed & Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou & Mr. Guilherme Pedras, 2010. "Managing Public Debt and Its Financial Stability Implications," IMF Working Papers 2010/280, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Nicola Giammarioli & Christiane Nickel & Philipp Rother & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2007. "Assessing fiscal soundness - Theory and practice," Occasional Paper Series 56, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Scott Regifère MOUANDAT, 2021. "dette optimale au Gabon," Journal of Academic Finance, RED research unit, university of Gabes, Tunisia, vol. 12(1), pages 132-149, June.
    2. Schmid, Lukas & Valaitis, Vytautas & Villa, Alessandro, 2023. "Government Debt Management and Inflation with Real and Nominal Bonds," CEPR Discussion Papers 18197, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Hans J Blommestein & Anja Hubig, 2012. "Is the standard micro portfolio approach to sovereign debt management still appropriate?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Threat of fiscal dominance?, volume 65, pages 141-155, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Sónia Araújo & Stéphanie Guichard, 2018. "Costa Rica: Restoring fiscal sustainability and setting the basis for a more growth-friendly and inclusive fiscal policy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1484, OECD Publishing.
    5. Scott Régifère Mouandat, 2021. "Optimal debt in Gabon: an analysis in term of foreign currency compositions [La dette optimale au Gabon: une analyse en termes de composition en devises]," Post-Print hal-03326826, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hans J Blommestein & Anja Hubig, 2012. "Is the standard micro portfolio approach to sovereign debt management still appropriate?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Threat of fiscal dominance?, volume 65, pages 141-155, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Johannes Holler, 2013. "Funding Strategies of Sovereign Debt Management: A Risk Focus," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 51-74.
    3. Marcet, Albert & Scott, Andrew & Faraglia, Elisa, 2014. "Modelling Long Bonds - The Case of Optimal Fiscal Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 9965, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Stéphane Guibaud & Yves Nosbusch & Dimitri Vayanos, 2013. "Bond Market Clienteles, the Yield Curve, and the Optimal Maturity Structure of Government Debt," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(8), pages 1914-1961.
    5. Alessandro Missale, 2012. "Sovereign debt management and fiscal vulnerabilities," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Threat of fiscal dominance?, volume 65, pages 157-176, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Equiza-Goñi, Juan & Faraglia, Elisa & Oikonomou, Rigas, 2023. "Union debt management," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    7. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Hanson, Jesper & de Jong, Frank, 2021. "The maturity of sovereign debt issuance in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    8. Ellison, Martin & Scott, Andrew, 2017. "Managing the UK National Debt 1694-2017," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86148, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Basil Guggenheim & Mario Meichle & Thomas Nellen, 2019. "Confederation debt management since 1970," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 155(1), pages 1-23, December.
    10. Bank for International Settlements, 2011. "Interactions of sovereign debt management with monetary conditions and financial stability," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 42.
    11. Nada Azmy Elberry & Frank Naert & Stijn Goeminne, 2023. "Optimal public debt composition during debt crises: A review of theoretical literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 351-376, April.
    12. Faraglia, Elisa & Marcet, Albert & Scott, Andrew, 2010. "In search of a theory of debt management," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(7), pages 821-836, October.
    13. Niepelt, Dirk, 2014. "Debt maturity without commitment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(S), pages 37-54.
    14. Davide Debortoli & Ricardo Nunes & Pierre Yared, 2017. "Optimal Time-Consistent Government Debt Maturity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(1), pages 55-102.
    15. Dentler, Alexander & Rossi, Enzo, 2024. "Public debt management announcements: A welfare-theoretic analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    16. Charles de Beauffort & Boris Chafwehé & Rigas Oikonomou, 2024. "Managing the inflation-output trade-off with public debt portfolios," Working Paper Research 450, National Bank of Belgium.
    17. Melecky, Martin, 2012. "Formulation of public debt management strategies: An empirical study of possible drivers," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 218-234.
    18. Jochen Mankart & Romanos Priftis & Rigas Oikonomou, 2022. "The long and short of financing government spending," Working Paper Research 418, National Bank of Belgium.
    19. Renne, J-P., 2009. "Frequency-domain analysis of debt service in a macro-finance model for the euro area," Working papers 261, Banque de France.
    20. Michele Manna & Emmanuela Bernardini & Mauro Bufano & Davide Dottori, 2013. "Modelling public debt strategies," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 199, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    central banks; fiscal policy; government borrowing; monetary policy; public debt management; sovereign debt; sovereign risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:dafaaf:4-en. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/caoecfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.