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Analysing megatrends to better shape the future of tourism

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  • OECD

Abstract

The future of tourism will be impacted by large-scale social, economic, political, environmental and technological changes, bringing new and often unseen challenges, threats and opportunities. These “megatrends” are slow to form, but once they have taken root, exercise a profound and lasting influence on human activities, processes and perceptions, including for tourism. Four megatrends are likely to have significant impacts and relevance for tourism: i) evolving visitor demand; ii) sustainable tourism growth; iii) enabling technologies; and iv) travel mobility. Exploring the multidimensional implications of these megatrends to 2040 is important to inform policy and shape the future of tourism. This Tourism Paper develops a range of plausible scenarios and potential policy responses for the megatrends mentioned above, it then examines how policy makers can better prepare for megatrends, and presents a set of guiding principles for effective strategic foresight in tourism.

Suggested Citation

  • Oecd, 2018. "Analysing megatrends to better shape the future of tourism," OECD Tourism Papers 2018/02, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:cfeaab:2018/02-en
    DOI: 10.1787/d465eb68-en
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    Cited by:

    1. -, 2020. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism sector in Latin America and the Caribbean, and options for a sustainable and resilient recovery," Comercio Internacional 46502, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    enabling technologies; megatrends; scenario planning; strategic foresight; sustainable tourism; tourism; travel mobility; visitor demand;
    All these keywords.

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