2022 review and 2023 outlook: towards price stabilization

While 2021 brought higher prices for almost all agricultural, mineral and energy commodities as the economy caught up after Covid, this was not the case for 2022, with, on the contrary, prices diverging substantially. The onset of war in Ukraine certainly drove up the price of many commodities given the significance of Russia, Ukraine and even Belarus in world production. However, it was the imposition, or not, of trade and financial sanctions against Russian exporting companies and the implementation of retaliatory measures by Moscow that fundamentally determined the upward or downward trajectory of prices. Not all was geopolitical, however, with the global macroeconomy returning to some degree of normalcy in the second half of 2022. The stronger US dollar for much of the year weighed on prices, as did economic and health uncertainties in China and doubts about Beijing's zero-covid policy through December. While the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is expected to continue, these same variables will largely determine the shape of 2023 markets in a depressed macroeconomic context.