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Job-to-job flows and inflation: Evidence from administrative data in New Zealand

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Abstract

Job-to-job flows, characterised as the number of workers moving from one job to another without a spell of unemployment, have attracted renewed attention in the academic, and policy literature in recent years. In this note, I use the administrative Linked Employee and Employer Data (LEED) to create novel measure of job-to-job flows for New Zealand, and then examine their forecasting performance for non-tradable inflation and wage growth in New Zealand. Job-to-job flows outperform other measures at every forecast horizon. In this note, I also argue that job-to- job flows are an indirect measure of ‘marginal cost’, and deserve closer attention in understanding inflation dynamics. Job-to-job flows have been increasing very slowly since the recession of 2008-2009, and this is one contributing explanation for the low wage growth and inflation outcomes observed in recent years.

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  • Özer Karagedikli, 2018. "Job-to-job flows and inflation: Evidence from administrative data in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2018/09, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbans:2018/09
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Coleman & Guanyu Zheng, 2020. "Job-to-job transitions and the regional job ladder," Working Papers 2020/01, New Zealand Productivity Commission.
    2. Christopher Ball & Nicolas Groshenny & Oezer Karagedikli & Murat Oezbilgin & Finn Robinson, 2020. "Low wage growth and job-to-job transitions: Evidence from administrative data in New Zealand," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202021, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    3. Adam Richardson, 2019. "New Zealand Wage Inflation Post-crisis," RBA Annual Conference Papers acp2019-02, Reserve Bank of Australia, revised Jul 2019.
    4. Finn Robinson & Jamie Culling & Gael Price, 2019. "Evaluating indicators of labour market capacity in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2019/09, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    5. Christopher Ball & Nicolas Groshenny & Ozer Karagedikli & Murat Özbilgin & Finn Robinson, 2024. "How Wages Respond to the Job-Finding and Job-to-Job Transition Rates: Evidence from New Zealand Administrative Data," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(1), pages 159-180, February.
    6. Jamie Culling & Finn Robinson, 2020. "Employment and hours worked adjustment in New Zealand's labour market," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2020/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

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