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The Effects of Banking Crises on Potential Output in OECD Countries

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  • Iana Liadze
  • Ray Barrell
  • Professor E. Philip Davis

Abstract

Simple time series models looking for the effect of financial crises on output generally find that they reduce the sustainable level of output permanently. However, not all crises are the same, with some being caused by recessions and others causing or preceding recessions. Using a common definition of crises in 13 OECD countries we look at the determinants of productivity per person hour, and include the possibility of a step down in the level of trend productivity around the time of crises. Although on average crises reduce output permanently by almost 3 per cent, it is not possible to impose a common effect across all crises. Only 3 of the 9 crises studied here have a significant permanent negative effect on output. We show, however that crisis related recessions are longer and deeper than non-crisis recessions.

Suggested Citation

  • Iana Liadze & Ray Barrell & Professor E. Philip Davis, 2010. "The Effects of Banking Crises on Potential Output in OECD Countries," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 358, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:358
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    Cited by:

    1. Bijapur, Mohan, 2012. "Do financial crises erode potential output? evidence from OECD inflation responses," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 56616, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Howard-Jones, Robert Peter & Hassani, Hossein, 2015. "The United Kingdom productivity paradox: Myth or reality," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 52-60.
    3. Yan, Meilan & Hall, Maximilian J.B. & Turner, Paul, 2012. "A cost–benefit analysis of Basel III: Some evidence from the UK," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 73-82.
    4. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra & O'Connell, Brian & O'Toole, Conor, 2013. "How do banking crises affect aggregate consumption? Evidence from international crisis episodes," Papers WP464, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    5. Bijapur, Mohan, 2012. "Do financial crises erode potential output? Evidence from OECD inflation responses," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 700-703.

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