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Unemployment in Britain: Some more Questions

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  • Simon Kirby

Abstract

Recent time series evidence favouring a supply-side interpretation of long-run unemployment in the UK is based on the finding of cointegration between unemployment and wage pressure variables. We show that this is necessary but not sufficient. The key assumptions in recent work, that a single relation exists between unemployment and wage pressure variables and that the causality is from these variables to unemployment, both appear to be invalid. In the light of this, and evidence of its serious parameter instability, this model of long-run UK unemployment seems flawed.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon Kirby, 2007. "Unemployment in Britain: Some more Questions," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 293, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:293
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    1. n/a, 2007. "Monetary Policy, Beliefs, Unemployment and Inflation; Evidence from the UK," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 305, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

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