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The Determinants of International Migration into the UK: A Panel Based Modelling Approach

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  • Nigel Pain
  • Dr. James Mitchell

Abstract

Relatively little is known about the factors behind the gross level of international migrant flows into the UK, despite the rapid growth in the number of migrants seen in recent years. This matters because assumptions about the future evolution of migration are an important component of official judgements about the potential trend rate of economic growth. In this paper we develop the first detailed econometric model of the economic and demographic determinants of annual migrant inflows into the UK from a number of different locations. Some of the factors found to be important, such as Ôfriends and family' effects from existing migrants, income differentials between the host and source location and the demographic structure of the source location population, have been shown to matter in other host economies as well. But we also show that it is important to allow both for developments in other potential host locations and for heterogeneity in the speed with which migration from different source locations responds to changes in economic circumstances. Neither of these factors have been given much attention to date in the applied literature on international migration. We find that the change in migration over the decade to 1998-2000 is primarily due to population growth in the source locations and the continuing pull effects from the rise in the migrant stock and per capita incomes in the UK relative to the source location.

Suggested Citation

  • Nigel Pain & Dr. James Mitchell, 2003. "The Determinants of International Migration into the UK: A Panel Based Modelling Approach," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 216, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:216
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    Cited by:

    1. Timothy Hatton, 2005. "Explaining trends in UK immigration," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 18(4), pages 719-740, November.
    2. de Arce, Rafael & Mahia, Ramon, 2008. "Determinants of Bilateral Immigration Flows Between The European Union and some Mediterranean Partner Countries: Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey," MPRA Paper 14547, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Katarzyna Budnik, 2011. "Emigration Triggers: International Migration of Polish Workers between 1994 and 2009," NBP Working Papers 90, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    4. Goulden, Murray & Ryley, Tim & Dingwall, Robert, 2014. "Beyond ‘predict and provide’: UK transport, the growth paradigm and climate change," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 139-147.
    5. Dreher, Axel & Poutvaara, Panu, 2005. "Student Flows and Migration: An Empirical Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 1612, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Gabriel Felbermayr & Isabella Reczkowski & Gabriel J. Felbermayr, 2012. "International Student Mobility and High-Skilled Migration: The Evidence," ifo Working Paper Series 132, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    7. Robert Elliott & Joanne Kathryn Lindley, 2006. "Immigrant Wage Differentials, Ethnicity and Occupational Clustering," Working Papers 2006008, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised May 2006.

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