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Input and Output Inventories in the UK

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  • John Tsoukalas

Abstract

What is the role of inventories in UK manufacturing? We present and estimate a model of inventories that considers separately finished goods and input (i.e. the sum of raw materials and work-in-process) inventories. We estimate structural parameters which allows us to make inferences on the role of inventories in cyclical frequencies. Our results suggest that both types of inventories are used for production level (from demand shocks) and production cost (from cost shocks) smoothing. We identify a small but significant negative relationship between inventories and the real interest rate thus providing support for one of the textbook channels of the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Variance decompositions indicate that technology shocks are the dominant driving factor behind cyclical changes in inventories. These shocks account for over 35% of the forecast error variance at these frequencies.

Suggested Citation

  • John Tsoukalas, 2009. "Input and Output Inventories in the UK," Discussion Papers 09/13, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    • Handle: RePEc:not:notcfc:09/13
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    File URL: https://www.nottingham.ac.uk/cfcm/documents/papers/09-13.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anindya Banerjee & Paul Mizen, 2006. "A re‐interpretation of the linear quadratic model when inventories and sales are polynomially cointegrated," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1249-1264, December.
    2. Daniele Coen-Pirani, 2004. "Markups, Aggregation, and Inventory Adjustment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1328-1353, December.
    3. repec:bla:econom:v:72:y:2005:i:286:p:201-224 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Simona Mateut & Paul Mizen & Ydriss Ziane, 2012. "No Going Back: How the Production Process Affects Access to Short-term Credit," Discussion Papers 12/14, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inventories; Linear-quadratic model; Interest rates.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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