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Demographic Changes And The Long-Term Pension Finances In Vietnam: A Stochastic Actuarial Assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Giang Thanh Long

    (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies)

  • Wade D. Pfau

    (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies)

Abstract

This paper aims to provide a long-term financial vision for the Vietnamese pension scheme using stochastic modeling for key variables under an actuarial framework. In particular, we project the pension fund balances in order to see whether the scheme will be financially sustainable. The median values of the status-quo projections show that the pension fund will be depleted in about 2052 with a 90-percent confidence interval range of 8 years. The estimated results from our sensitivity tests show that the retirement age, the indexation method for pension benefits, and the contribution rate are all crucial determinants of the pension fund balance in the long term. At the same time, some factors, including coverage rates, administrative costs, the long-term fertility rate, and the rate of return on pension fund assets play less important roles in determining the fund’s balance.

Suggested Citation

  • Giang Thanh Long & Wade D. Pfau, 2008. "Demographic Changes And The Long-Term Pension Finances In Vietnam: A Stochastic Actuarial Assessment," GRIPS Discussion Papers 08-05, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:ngi:dpaper:08-05
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giang, Thanh Long, 2004. "The Pension Scheme in Vietnam: Current Status and Challenges in an Aging Society," MPRA Paper 969, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Van Minh, Hoang & Kim Phuong, Nguyen Thi & Saksena, Priyanka & James, Chris D. & Xu, Ke, 2013. "Financial burden of household out-of pocket health expenditure in Viet Nam: Findings from the National Living Standard Survey 2002–2010," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 258-263.
    2. Shin Kimura & Tomoki Kitamura & Kunio Nakashima, 2023. "Investment risk-taking and benefit adequacy under automatic balancing mechanism in the Japanese public pension system," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-19, December.
    3. Vanella, Patrizio & Rodriguez Gonzalez, Miguel & Wilke, Christina B., 2021. "The Impact of Population Aging on the German Statutory Pension Insurance - A Probabilistic Approach," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-688, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.

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