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A Rehabilitation of Stochastic Discount Factor Methodology

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  • John H. Cochrane

Abstract

In a recent Journal of Finance article, Kan and Zhou (1999) find that the 'Stochastic discount factor' methodology using GMM is markedly inferior to traditional maximum likelihood even in a simple test of the static CAPM with i.i.d. normal returns. This result has gained wide attention. However, as Jagannathan and Wang (2001) point out, this result flows from a strange assumption: Kan and Zhou allow the ML estimate to know the mean market return ex-ante. I show how this information advantage explains Kan and Zhou's results. In fact, when treated symmetrically, the discount factor - GMM and traditional methodologies behave almost identically in linear i.i.d. environments.

Suggested Citation

  • John H. Cochrane, 2001. "A Rehabilitation of Stochastic Discount Factor Methodology," NBER Working Papers 8533, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8533
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ravi Jagannathan & Zhenyu Wang, 2002. "Empirical Evaluation of Asset‐Pricing Models: A Comparison of the SDF and Beta Methods," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2337-2367, October.
    2. Cochrane, John H, 1996. "A Cross-Sectional Test of an Investment-Based Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 572-621, June.
    3. Raymond Kan & Guofu Zhou, 1999. "A Critique of the Stochastic Discount Factor Methodology," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1221-1248, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Smith & Michael Wickens, 2002. "Asset Pricing with Observable Stochastic Discount Factors," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 397-446, July.
    2. Simin, Timothy, 2008. "The Poor Predictive Performance of Asset Pricing Models," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(2), pages 355-380, June.
    3. Chen, Jiaqi & Sherif, Mohamed, 2016. "Illiquidity premium and expected stock returns in the UK: A new approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 458(C), pages 52-66.
    4. Ahmed, Shamim & Liu, Xiaoquan & Valente, Giorgio, 2016. "Can currency-based risk factors help forecast exchange rates?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 75-97.
    5. Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 2002. "Expropriation Risk and Return in Global Equity Markets," SIFR Research Report Series 8, Institute for Financial Research.
    6. Fergusson, Kevin, 2020. "Less-Expensive Valuation And Reserving Of Long-Dated Variable Annuities When Interest Rates And Mortality Rates Are Stochastic," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(2), pages 381-417, May.
    7. Brooks, Chris & Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Miffre, Joëlle & Nneji, Ogonna, 2016. "Commodity risks and the cross-section of equity returns," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 134-150.
    8. repec:uts:finphd:40 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Laurinaityte, Nora & Meinerding, Christoph & Schlag, Christian & Thimme, Julian, 2020. "GMM weighting matrices incross-sectional asset pricing tests," Discussion Papers 62/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Massimo Guidolin & Martin Lozano & Juan Arismendi Zambrano, "undated". "Multifactor Empirical Asset Pricing Under Higher-Order Moment Variations," Economics Department Working Paper Series n304-20.pdf, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    11. Bernard Walley, 2015. "Macroeconomic sources of foreign exchange risk premium: evidence from South Africa," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(2), pages 382-395, April.
    12. Doron Avramov & Si Cheng & Lior Metzker, 2023. "Machine Learning vs. Economic Restrictions: Evidence from Stock Return Predictability," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 2587-2619, May.
    13. Kevin John Fergusson, 2018. "Less-Expensive Pricing and Hedging of Extreme-Maturity Interest Rate Derivatives and Equity Index Options Under the Real-World Measure," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 3-2018, January-A.
    14. Dahlquist, Magnus & Sallstrom, Torbjorn, 2002. "An Evaluation of International Asset Pricing Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3145, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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