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Covariance Risk, Mispricing, and the Cross Section of Security Returns

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  • Kent D. Daniel
  • David Hirshleifer
  • Avanidhar Subrahmanyam

Abstract

This paper offers a multisecurity model in which prices reflect both covariance risk and misperceptions of firms' prospects, and in which arbitrageurs trade to profit from mispricing. We derive a pricing relationship in which expected returns are linearly related to both risk and mispricing variables. The model thereby implies a multivariate relation between expected return, beta, and variables that proxy for mispricing of idiosyncratic components of value tends to be arbitraged away but systematic mispricing is not. The theory is consistent with several empirical findings regarding the cross-section of equity returns, including: the observed ability of fundamental/price ratios to forecast aggregate and cross-sectional returns, and of market value but not non-market size measures to forecast returns cross-sectionally; and the ability in some studies of fundamental/price ratios and market value to dominate traditional measures of security risk. The model also offers several untested empirical implications for the cross-section of expected returns and for the relation of volume to subsequent volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Kent D. Daniel & David Hirshleifer & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2000. "Covariance Risk, Mispricing, and the Cross Section of Security Returns," NBER Working Papers 7615, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7615
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gervais, Simon & Odean, Terrance, 2001. "Learning to be Overconfident," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 1-27.
    2. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
    3. Shlomo Benartzi & Richard H. Thaler, 1995. "Myopic Loss Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(1), pages 73-92.
    4. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40.
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    Cited by:

    1. Guerdjikova, Ani, 2006. "Portfolio Choice and Asset Prices in an Economy Populated by Case-Based Decision Makers," Working Papers 06-13, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
    2. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang, 2001. "Mental Accounting, Loss Aversion, and Individual Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 8190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Hugh Kelley & Tom Evans, 2010. "Measuring the Impact of Behavioral Traders in the Market for Closed-end Country Funds from 2002 to 2009," Chapters, in: Brian Bruce (ed.), Handbook of Behavioral Finance, chapter 16, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Yannick Malevergne & Pedro Santa-Clara & Didier Sornette, 2009. "Professor Zipf goes to Wall Street," NBER Working Papers 15295, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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