IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/6124.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dynamic Modeling of the Product Life Cycle in the Commercial Mainframe Computer Market, 1968-1982

Author

Listed:
  • Shane M. Greenstein
  • James B. Wade

Abstract

This research investigates product life cycles in the commercial mainframe computer market. We show that empirical studies conducted at the product level are useful for investigating processes underlying product life cycles. We use hazard models with time-varying covariates to estimate the probability of product exit and Poisson models to estimate the probability of introduction. We measure the importance of different aspects of market structure, such as the degree of competitiveness, cannibalization, vintage, product niche and firm effects. We find some evidence of a relationship between the determinants of product exit and product entry.

Suggested Citation

  • Shane M. Greenstein & James B. Wade, 1997. "Dynamic Modeling of the Product Life Cycle in the Commercial Mainframe Computer Market, 1968-1982," NBER Working Papers 6124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6124
    Note: PR
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w6124.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ernst R. Berndt & Zvi Griliches, 1993. "Price Indexes for Microcomputers: An Exploratory Study," NBER Chapters, in: Price Measurements and Their Uses, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Cameron, A Colin & Trivedi, Pravin K, 1986. "Econometric Models Based on Count Data: Comparisons and Applications of Some Estimators and Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 29-53, January.
    3. Jovanovic, Boyan & MacDonald, Glenn M, 1994. "The Life Cycle of a Competitive Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(2), pages 322-347, April.
    4. Reinganum, Jennifer F., 1989. "The timing of innovation: Research, development, and diffusion," Handbook of Industrial Organization, in: R. Schmalensee & R. Willig (ed.), Handbook of Industrial Organization, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 849-908, Elsevier.
    5. Jovanovic, Boyan & MacDonald, Glenn M, 1994. "Competitive Diffusion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(1), pages 24-52, February.
    6. Ariel Pakes & Paul McGuire, 1994. "Computing Markov-Perfect Nash Equilibria: Numerical Implications of a Dynamic Differentiated Product Model," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(4), pages 555-589, Winter.
    7. Stephen D. Oliner, 1993. "Constant-Quality Price Change, Depreciation, and Retirement of Mainframe Computers," NBER Chapters, in: Price Measurements and Their Uses, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Klepper, Steven, 1996. "Entry, Exit, Growth, and Innovation over the Product Life Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 562-583, June.
    9. Robert J. Gordon, 1987. "The Postwar Evolution of Computer Prices," NBER Working Papers 2227, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wilfred Dolfsma & Gerben Velde, 2014. "Industry innovativeness, firm size, and entrepreneurship: Schumpeter Mark III?," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 713-736, September.
    2. Machiel Mulder & Victoria Shestalova & Gijsbert Zwart, 2006. "Liberalisation of European energy markets: challenges and policy options," CPB Document 138.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    3. David Greenstreet, 2007. "Exploiting Sequential Learning to Estimate Establishment-Level Productivity Dynamics and Decision Rules," Economics Series Working Papers 345, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    4. Soete, Luc & Verspagen, Bart & ter Weel, Bas, 2010. "Systems of Innovation," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1159-1180, Elsevier.
    5. Emin Dinlersoz & Glenn MacDonald, 2009. "The Industry Life-Cycle of the Size Distribution of Firms," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(4), pages 648-667, October.
    6. Nishimura, Kiyohiko G. & Nakajima, Takanobu & Kiyota, Kozo, 2005. "Does the natural selection mechanism still work in severe recessions?: Examination of the Japanese economy in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 53-78, September.
    7. Filson, Darren & Gretz, Richard T., 2004. "Strategic innovation and technology adoption in an evolving industry," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 89-121, January.
    8. Michael Menhart & Andreas Pyka & Bernd Ebersberger & Horst Hanusch, 2003. "Product Innovation and Population Dynamics in the German Insurance Market," Discussion Paper Series 240, Universitaet Augsburg, Institute for Economics.
    9. Hünermund, Paul & Schmidt-Dengler, Philipp & Takahashi, Yuya, 2014. "Entry and shakeout in dynamic oligopoly," ZEW Discussion Papers 14-116, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    10. Geroski, P. A. & Mazzucato, M., 2001. "Modelling the dynamics of industry populations," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 1003-1022, July.
    11. Lee, Seong-Hoon & Goo, Young-Wan, 2008. "Endogenous Income Distribution with Product Obsolescence," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 49(2), pages 75-90, December.
    12. John Sutton, 1996. "Gibrats Legacy," STICERD - Economics of Industry Papers 14, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    13. Sonobe, Tetsushi & Hu, Dinghuan & Otsuka, Keijiro, 2004. "From inferior to superior products: an inquiry into the Wenzhou model of industrial development in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 542-563, September.
    14. Herbert Dawid & Marc Reimann, 2011. "Diversification: a road to inefficiency in product innovations?," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 191-229, May.
    15. Malerba, Franco, 2007. "Innovation and the dynamics and evolution of industries: Progress and challenges," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 675-699, August.
    16. Raquel Ortega-Argilés & Rosina Moreno, 2005. "Firm Competitive Strategies And The Likelihood Of Survival - The Spanish Case," ERSA conference papers ersa05p347, European Regional Science Association.
    17. Diego Comin & Ramana Nanda, 2019. "Financial Development and Technology Diffusion," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(2), pages 395-419, June.
    18. Chung-Yi Tse, 2008. "Diffusion with variable production lead times," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 93(2), pages 177-202, March.
    19. Rajshree Agarwal & Barry L. Bayus, 2002. "The Market Evolution and Sales Takeoff of Product Innovations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(8), pages 1024-1041, August.
    20. Javier Garcia-Sanchez & Luiz F. Mesquita & Roberto S. Vassolo, 2014. "What doesn't kill you makes you stronger: The evolution of competition and entry-order advantages in economically turbulent contexts," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(13), pages 1972-1992, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6124. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.