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Monetary Policy in Japan, Germany and the United States: Does One Size Fit All?

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  • Menzie D. Chinn
  • Michael P. Dooley

Abstract

We study the post-war evidence for Japan to see if the same specification for both the economy and the monetary policy rule is useful for understanding Japan's economy and monetary policy. A recurrent theme in the literature on Japanese monetary policy is that there are significant differences in both the policy procedures and objectives as compared to other industrial countries. In this paper we propose an out of sample' test of a set of restrictions on a vector autoregression employed by Clarida and Gertler (1997) in their analysis of the Bundesbank's behavior. Our interpretation of the evidence is that, with minor adjustments, the same specification provides a useful framework for understanding monetary policy in Japan. Perhaps the most interesting finding is that the Bank of Japan appears to react to inflation over longer forecast horizons as compared to other central banks.

Suggested Citation

  • Menzie D. Chinn & Michael P. Dooley, 1997. "Monetary Policy in Japan, Germany and the United States: Does One Size Fit All?," NBER Working Papers 6092, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6092
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    1. Richard H. Clarida & Mark Gertler, 1997. "How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 363-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    6. Menzie Chinn & Michael Dooley, 1995. "Asia-Pacific Capital Markets: Measurement of Integration and the Implications for Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 5280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Bennett T. McCallum, 1993. "Specification and Analysis of a Monetary Policy Rule for Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 11(2), pages 1-45, December.
    8. Kasa, Ken & Popper, Helen, 1997. "Monetary Policy in Japan: A Structural VAR Analysis," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 275-295, September.
    9. Jordi Galí, 1992. "How Well Does The IS-LM Model Fit Postwar U. S. Data?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 709-738.
    10. Dominguez, K.M.E., 1997. "Monetary Interdependence and Coordination," Working Papers 408, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    11. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Kevin X.D. & Meng, Qinglai & Xue, Jianpo, 2009. "Is forward-looking inflation targeting destabilizing? The role of policy's response to current output under endogenous investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 409-430, February.
    2. Pierre L. Siklos, 2004. "Central Bank Behavior, the Institutional Framework, and Policy Regimes: Inflation Versus Noninflation Targeting Countries," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(3), pages 331-343, July.
    3. Anton Muscatelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules, Policy Preferences, and Uncertainty: Recent Empirical Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(5), pages 597-627, December.
    4. Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 2003. "The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 622-645, June.
    5. Drobyshevsky Sergey & Pavel Trunin & Kamenskih M., 2009. "Analysis of the Rules of Monetary and Credit Policy of Russia in 1999–2007," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 127P.
    6. V. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecoci, 2002. "Does Institutional Change Really Matter? Inflation Targets, Central Bank Reform and Interest Rate Policy in the OECD Countries," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 70(4), pages 487-527, June.
    7. V. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 1998. "Institutional Change, Inflation Targeting and the Stability of Interest Rate Reaction Functions," Working Papers 9815, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Aug 1998.
    8. Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 2003. "The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 622-645, June.
    9. de Andrade, Joaquim Pinto & Divino, Jose Angelo, 2005. "Monetary policy of the Bank of Japan--inflation target versus exchange rate target," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 189-208, April.
    10. Joaquim Pinto de Andrade & José Angelo C. A. Divino, 2015. "Optimal Rules for Monetary Policy in Brazil," Discussion Papers 0101, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    11. Mingwei Yuan & Christian Zimmermann, 2000. "Financial Intermediation with Heterogeneous Projects: An Application to the Japanese Credit Crunch," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 115, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    12. Stéphanie Guichard, 1998. "La politique monétaire et la crise japonaise," Working Papers 1998-06, CEPII research center.
    13. Kevin X.D. Huang & Qinglai Meng, 2014. "Returns to Scale, Market Power, and the Nature of Price Rigidity in New Keynesian Models with Self‐Fulfilling Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(2-3), pages 293-320, March.
    14. Tachibana, Minoru, 2006. "Did the Bank of Japan have a target zone for the inflation rate?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 131-136, July.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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