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Conditional Asset Allocation in Emerging Markets

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  • Campbell R. Harvey

Abstract

Within the context of conditional asset allocation strategies, this paper explores the implications of the low correlations of the emerging market returns with developed market returns and the relatively high degree predictability of emerging countries' returns. It is well known that low correlations improve investment opportunities and my research provides out-of-sample validation of the improved performance. However, the most dramatic enhancement is generated by the use of conditioning information. Portfolio strategies that use conditioning information to predict emerging market returns produce impressive out-of-sample performance over the 1980-1992 period.

Suggested Citation

  • Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Conditional Asset Allocation in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 4623, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4623
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harvey, Campbell R., 2001. "The specification of conditional expectations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 573-637, December.
    2. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816.
    3. Campbell, John Y & Hamao, Yasushi, 1992. "Predictable Stock Returns in the United States and Japan: A Study of Long-Term Capital Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 43-69, March.
    4. Gibbons, Michael R. & Ferson, Wayne, 1985. "Testing asset pricing models with changing expectations and an unobservable market portfolio," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 217-236, June.
    5. Campbell, J.Y. & Hamao, Y., 1988. "Predictable Bond And Stock Returns In The United States And Japan: A Study Of Long-Term Market Integration," Papers 100, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
    6. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Characterizing Predictable Components in Excess Returns on Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 467-509, June.
    7. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
    8. Ferson, Wayne E. & Harvey, Campbell R., 1994. "Sources of risk and expected returns in global equity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 775-803, September.
    9. Harvey, Campbell R., 1989. "Time-varying conditional covariances in tests of asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 289-317.
    10. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-444, June.
    11. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
    12. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    13. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    14. Lars Peter Hansen & Robert J. Hodrick, 1983. "Risk Averse Speculation in the Forward Foreign Exchange Market: An Econometric Analysis of Linear Models," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 113-152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The World Price of Covariance Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 111-157, March.
    16. Cumby, Robert E & Glen, Jack D, 1990. "Evaluating the Performance of International Mutual Funds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 497-521, June.
    17. Black, Fischer, 1972. "Capital Market Equilibrium with Restricted Borrowing," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(3), pages 444-455, July.
    18. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1993. "The Risk and Predictability of International Equity Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 527-566.
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    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General

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