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Incidence and Allocation Effects of a State Fiscal Policy Shift: The Florio Initiatives in New Jersey

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  • William T. Bogart
  • David F. Bradford
  • Michael G. Williams

Abstract

We calculate the incidence of recent changes to the New Jersey state tax system on a sample of homeowners. Our analysis distinguishes between business-as-usual responses to an evolving fiscal situation and tax changes that constitute a surprise. The latter have incidence effects; the former do not. We conclude that, if the changes carried out by NJ Governor Jim Florio are regarded as permanent, they effected a one-time wealth redistribution from, on average, higher-income homeowners toward lower-income homeowners and from owners of suburban residential property toward owners of urban residential property. Although effects on the averages for identifiable groups are clear and significant there is very considerable variation in the effects on individual homeowners within groups. We also estimate the allocation effects of the tax changes using a general equilibrium model that incorporates the option of in-and out migration. The results suggest that the changes will induce a sizable migration of weal thy and high-income people out of the state.

Suggested Citation

  • William T. Bogart & David F. Bradford & Michael G. Williams, 1992. "Incidence and Allocation Effects of a State Fiscal Policy Shift: The Florio Initiatives in New Jersey," NBER Working Papers 4177, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4177
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    Cited by:

    1. Goodspeed, Timothy J., 1998. "The Relationship Between State Income Taxes and Local Property Taxes: Education Finance in New Jersey," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 51(2), pages 219-238, June.
    2. Downes, Thomas A. & Zabel, Jeffrey E., 2002. "The impact of school characteristics on house prices: Chicago 1987-1991," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 1-25, July.
    3. Brian Knight, 2002. "Endogenous Federal Grants and Crowd-out of State Government Spending: Theory and Evidence from the Federal Highway Aid Program," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 71-92, March.

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