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Should The Fed Smooth Interest Rates? The Case of Seasonal Monetary Policy

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  • N. Gregory Mankiw
  • Jeffrey A. Miron

Abstract

This paper examines the choice of monetary policy in response to seasonal fluctuations in the economy. It discusses the costs and benefits of smoothing interest rates over the seasons, which has been the Fed's policy since its founding in 1914, and presents simulations suggesting how the economy would behave under the alternative policy of stabilizing the money stock. Finally, it presents evidence that the smoothing of interest rates in 1914 changed the seasonal business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1990. "Should The Fed Smooth Interest Rates? The Case of Seasonal Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 3388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3388
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bordo & Pierre L. Siklos, 2015. "Central Bank Credibility: An Historical and Quantitative Exploration," NBER Working Papers 20824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Pere Gomis-Porqueras & Bruce Smith, 2006. "The seasonality of banking failures during the late National Banking Era," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(1), pages 296-319, February.
    3. Adam Cagliarini & Guy Debelle, 2002. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Monetary Policy: How Good are the Brakes?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 7, pages 167-196, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Eric Olson & Walter Enders, 2012. "A Historical Analysis of the Taylor Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1285-1299, October.
    5. Philip Lowe & Luci Ellis, 1997. "The Smoothing of Official Interest Rates," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Philip Lowe (ed.),Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Rebecca Stuart, 2022. "Stock Return Predictability before the First World War," IRENE Working Papers 22-02, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    7. Beaulieu, J Joseph & Miron, Jeffrey A, 1992. "A Cross Country Comparison of Seasonal Cycles and Business Cycles," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(413), pages 772-788, July.
    8. Marcelo Veracierto, 2005. "Seasonal monetary policy," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 29(Q III), pages 49-68.
    9. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1995. "The seasonality of consumer prices," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q II, pages 12-23.
    10. Smith, R. Todd & van Egteren, Henry, 2005. "Interest rate smoothing and financial stability," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 147-171.
    11. Liu, Zheng, 2000. "Seasonal cycles, business cycles, and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 441-464, October.
    12. Jeffrey A. Miron, 1996. "The Economics of Seasonal Cycles," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262133237, April.
    13. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April.
    14. Ric Battellino & John Broadbent & Philip Lowe, 1997. "The Implementation of Monetary Policy in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9703, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    15. Brian P. Sack, 1998. "Uncertainty, learning, and gradual monetary policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. R. Todd Smith & Henry van Egteren, 2005. "Interest rate smoothing and financial stability," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(2), pages 147-171.

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