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Estimating the Footprint of Artisanal Mining in Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Darin Christensen
  • Tamma Carleton
  • Esther Rolf
  • Cullen Molitor
  • Shopnavo Biswas
  • Karena Yan
  • Graeme Blair

Abstract

Artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) supplies livelihoods and critical minerals but has been linked to conflict and environmental degradation. We enable monitoring of this largely informal sector by creating high-resolution maps of ASM's footprint in Africa using machine learning models that integrate geographic features and satellite imagery. We find ASM is more extensive than documented: in five countries with on-the-ground surveys, we predict over 231,000 1-km2 grid cells [±2 standard errors: 170,153-297,710] contain ASM activity – over 40 times that recorded by surveyors. Adapting methods for spatial domain adaptation, we map ASM across 20 total countries, estimating that 4% [2-8%] of territory and 17% [10-30%] of the population are impacted by ASM, which encroaches on a larger share of settlements and ecosystems than previously understood.

Suggested Citation

  • Darin Christensen & Tamma Carleton & Esther Rolf & Cullen Molitor & Shopnavo Biswas & Karena Yan & Graeme Blair, 2025. "Estimating the Footprint of Artisanal Mining in Africa," NBER Working Papers 33646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33646
    Note: EEE
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • Q49 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Other

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