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The Uncharted Waters of International Trade

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  • Pol Antràs

Abstract

The field of international trade has undergone significant theoretical and empirical advancements over the last twenty-five years. A key breakthrough has been the emergence of firm-level approaches to studying exporting, importing, and global value chains. The field has also experienced a quantitative revolution, driven by medium-scale models that rapidly assess the implications of trade cost shocks on real income. Additionally, a branch of the empirical literature has unshackled itself from the discipline of theoretical frameworks and from traditional data sources. Yet, several underexplored areas, or `uncharted waters,' remain in international trade research. I outline new potential areas for theoretical research, including incorporating oligopolistic (strategic) behavior into core models, and fostering greater cross-disciplinary collaboration with other fields in economics and social sciences, such as behavioral economics or political science. I also discuss potential uncharted waters for empirical trade economists, while identifying potential new sources of data and ways in which official trade statistics could be improved. Finally, I explore how big data and artificial intelligence could reshape the design of international trade policy in coming years.

Suggested Citation

  • Pol Antràs, 2024. "The Uncharted Waters of International Trade," NBER Working Papers 33312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33312
    Note: ITI
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • B27 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - International Trade and Finance
    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • L22 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Organization and Market Structure

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