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Trade and Structural Change: Focusing on the Specifics

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  • Andrew Greenland
  • John Lopresti

Abstract

Using a newly digitized database encompassing the universe of tariff lines across five US trade policy regimes between 1900 and 1940, we show that price dynamics combine with industry reliance on specific tariffs to generate large swings in average tariff levels. Intra-policy variation in tariffs is strongly predictive of import growth throughout our sample. Using linked Census data, we quantify the effects of imports on structural change in this era. We find that import growth decreases labor force participation and inhibits the transition into the expanding manufacturing and service sectors, especially among the young.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Greenland & John Lopresti, 2024. "Trade and Structural Change: Focusing on the Specifics," NBER Working Papers 33127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33127
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F66 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Labor

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