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Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of US Elections

Author

Listed:
  • Richard Calvo
  • Vincent Pons
  • Jesse M. Shapiro

Abstract

Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections since 1952. We envision a forecaster who fits a model using data from a given election and uses that model, in tandem with a projection of demographic trends, to predict future elections. Even a forecaster with perfect knowledge of future demographic trends would have performed poorly over this period—worse even than one who simply guesses that each election will have a 50-50 partisan split. Enriching the set of demographics available does not change this conclusion. We discuss both mechanical and economic reasons for this finding, and show suggestive evidence that parties adjust their platforms in accordance with changes in the electorate.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Calvo & Vincent Pons & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2024. "Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of US Elections," NBER Working Papers 33016, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33016
    Note: POL
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • P0 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - General

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