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APT or “AIPT”? The Surprising Dominance of Large Factor Models

Author

Listed:
  • Antoine Didisheim
  • Shikun (Barry) Ke
  • Bryan T. Kelly
  • Semyon Malamud

Abstract

We introduce artificial intelligence pricing theory (AIPT). In contrast with the APT’s foundational assumption of a low dimensional factor structure in returns, the AIPT conjectures that returns are driven by a large number of factors. We first verify this conjecture empirically and show that nonlinear models with an exorbitant number of factors (many more than the number of training observations or base assets) are far more successful in describing the out-of-sample behavior of asset returns than simpler standard models. We then theoretically characterize the behavior of large factor pricing models, from which we show that the AIPT’s “many factors” conjecture faithfully explains our empirical findings, while the APT’s “few factors” conjecture is contradicted by the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine Didisheim & Shikun (Barry) Ke & Bryan T. Kelly & Semyon Malamud, 2024. "APT or “AIPT”? The Surprising Dominance of Large Factor Models," NBER Working Papers 33012, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33012
    Note: AP
    as

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    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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