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The Nonlinear Effects of Air Pollution on Health: Evidence from Wildfire Smoke

Author

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  • Nolan H. Miller
  • David Molitor
  • Eric Zou

Abstract

We estimate how acute air pollution exposure from wildfire smoke impacts human health in the U.S., allowing for nonlinear effects. Wildfire smoke is pervasive and produces air quality shocks of varying intensity, depending on wind patterns and plume thickness. Using administrative Medicare records for 2007–2019, we estimate that wildfire smoke accounts for 18% of ambient PM2.5 concentrations, 0.42% of deaths, and 0.69% of emergency room visits among adults aged 65 and over. Smaller pollution shocks have outsized health impacts, indicating significant health benefits from improving air quality, even in areas meeting current regulatory standards.

Suggested Citation

  • Nolan H. Miller & David Molitor & Eric Zou, 2024. "The Nonlinear Effects of Air Pollution on Health: Evidence from Wildfire Smoke," NBER Working Papers 32924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32924
    Note: AG EEE EH PE
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tatyana Deryugina & Garth Heutel & Nolan H. Miller & David Molitor & Julian Reif, 2019. "The Mortality and Medical Costs of Air Pollution: Evidence from Changes in Wind Direction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(12), pages 4178-4219, December.
    2. Koichiro Ito & Shuang Zhang, 2020. "Willingness to Pay for Clean Air: Evidence from Air Purifier Markets in China," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(5), pages 1627-1672.
    3. A. Colin Cameron & Douglas L. Miller, 2015. "A Practitioner’s Guide to Cluster-Robust Inference," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 317-372.
    4. Seema Jayachandran, 2009. "Air Quality and Early-Life Mortality: Evidence from Indonesia’s Wildfires," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(4).
    5. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone & Joseph S. Shapiro, 2017. "Defensive Investments and the Demand for Air Quality: Evidence from the NOx Budget Program," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 2958-2989, October.
    6. Janet Currie & Matthew Neidell, 2005. "Air Pollution and Infant Health: What Can We Learn from California's Recent Experience?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(3), pages 1003-1030.
    7. Graff Zivin, Joshua & Liu, Tong & Song, Yingquan & Tang, Qu & Zhang, Peng, 2020. "The unintended impacts of agricultural fires: Human capital in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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