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Inflation Targets: Practice Ahead of Theory

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  • Mervyn A. King

Abstract

Inflation targets were introduced well ahead of the development of the theory of inflation targeting. The practice was successful because it comprised a new set of procedures and institutions for setting monetary policy in a transparent and accountable fashion – “constrained discretion”; the later theory was less useful because it purported to be a theory of the determination of the price level. But inflation targeting does not constitute a new theory of the monetary transmission mechanism. The belief that it does led to the replacement of Milton Friedman’s dictum that “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon” by the new dictum that “inflation is always and everywhere a transitory phenomenon”. This had unfortunate consequences during the recent inflation. The paper concludes with a discussion of the challenges facing inflation targets in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Mervyn A. King, 2024. "Inflation Targets: Practice Ahead of Theory," NBER Working Papers 32594, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32594
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    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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