IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/32567.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Sufficient Statistics for Measuring Forward-Looking Welfare

Author

Listed:
  • David Baqaee
  • Ariel Burstein
  • Yasutaka Koike-Mori

Abstract

We provide a method to measure welfare, in money-metric terms, taking into account expectations about the future. Our two key assumptions are that (1) the expenditure function is separable between the present and the future, and (2) there are some households that do not face idiosyncratic undiversifiable risk. Our sufficient statistics methodology allows for incomplete markets, lifecycle motives, non-rational expectations, non-exponential time discounting, and arbitrary functional forms. To apply our formulas, we require estimates of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution, goods and services’ prices over time, and repeated cross-sectional information on households’ income, balance sheets, and expenditures. We illustrate our method using the PSID from the United States. We find that static measures overstate cost-of-living increases for most households, particularly younger and poorer households. Our estimates can be used to study the welfare consequences of dynamic stochastic shocks that affect households along different margins and time horizons. For example, we find that involuntary job loss is associated with a 20% reduction in money-metric utility for households younger than 60 years old.

Suggested Citation

  • David Baqaee & Ariel Burstein & Yasutaka Koike-Mori, 2024. "Sufficient Statistics for Measuring Forward-Looking Welfare," NBER Working Papers 32567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32567
    Note: EFG ITI
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w32567.pdf
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text is generally limited to series subscribers, however if the top level domain of the client browser is in a developing country or transition economy free access is provided. More information about subscriptions and free access is available at http://www.nber.org/wwphelp.html. Free access is also available to older working papers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • D0 - Microeconomics - - General
    • D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
    • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32567. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.