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Understanding Expert Choices Using Decision Time

Author

Listed:
  • David Card
  • Stefano DellaVigna
  • Chenxi Jiang
  • Dmitry Taubinsky

Abstract

Laboratory experiments find a robust relationship between decision times and perceived values of alternatives. This paper investigates how these findings translate to experts' decision making and information acquisition in the field. In a stylized model of expert choice between two alternatives, we show that (i) less-commonly chosen alternatives are more likely to be chosen later than earlier; (ii) decision time is higher when the likelihood of choosing each alternative is closer to fifty percent; and (iii) the ultimate quality of the chosen alternative may increase or decrease with decision time, depending on whether earlier or later signals are more informative. We test these predictions in the editorial setting, where we observe proxies for paper quality and signals available to editors. We document that (i) the probability of a positive decision rises with decision time; (ii) average decision time is higher when our estimated probability of a positive decision is closer to fifty percent; and (iii) paper quality is positively (negatively) related to decision time for papers with Reject (R&R) decisions. Structural estimates show that the additional information acquired in editorial delays is modest, and has little impact on the quality of decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • David Card & Stefano DellaVigna & Chenxi Jiang & Dmitry Taubinsky, 2024. "Understanding Expert Choices Using Decision Time," NBER Working Papers 32515, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32515
    Note: ED LS PE POL PR
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General

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