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Impact of Retail CBDC on Digital Payments, and Bank Deposits: Evidence from India

Author

Listed:
  • Marco Di Maggio
  • Pulak Ghosh
  • Soumya Kanti Ghosh
  • Andrew Wu

Abstract

Interest in central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) has been burgeoning with 134 countries now exploring its implementation. In December 2022, India started its CBDC pilot program to continue its transition towards a digitized payments economy. This paper presents the first empirical analysis utilizing detailed transaction data to explore the dynamics between CBDCs and existing digital payment methods, as well as the implications of increased CBDC usage on traditional bank deposits. Our findings reveal that policies which increase transaction costs for current digital payment methods catalyze a substitution effect, bolstering CBDC adoption. Furthermore, an uptick in CBDC usage is associated with a notable decline in bank, cash, and savings deposits, suggesting potential paths to bank disintermediation. This study contributes critical insights into the evolving competition between digital currencies and established financial infrastructures, highlighting the transformative potential of CBDCs on the broader economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Di Maggio & Pulak Ghosh & Soumya Kanti Ghosh & Andrew Wu, 2024. "Impact of Retail CBDC on Digital Payments, and Bank Deposits: Evidence from India," NBER Working Papers 32457, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32457
    Note: CF ME
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth

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