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Early Predictors of Racial Disparities in Criminal Justice Involvement

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Listed:
  • Andrew Jordan
  • Ezra Karger
  • Derek Neal

Abstract

We examine ten cohorts of male eighth graders in public schools in Chicago, IL: 1995-2004. We find large racial disparities in academic achievement, socioeconomic status (SES), and adult criminal justice involvement. Although our measures of SES and academic achievement are strong predictors of future felony arraignment and incarceration, even among students of the same race who attend the same school, these measures predict only small portions of the overall Black-Hispanic disparities in adult criminal justice involvement. These same measures predict between roughly half or more of Black-White criminal justice disparities and over eighty percent of Hispanic-white disparities. The relationships between various value- added measures of eighth-grade school quality and future criminal justice outcomes vary by race. Schools that excel at promoting on-time matriculation from eighth grade to high school significantly reduce rates of criminal justice involvement among Black males.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Jordan & Ezra Karger & Derek Neal, 2024. "Early Predictors of Racial Disparities in Criminal Justice Involvement," NBER Working Papers 32428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32428
    Note: ED LE
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I0 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - General
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • K0 - Law and Economics - - General

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