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What Hundreds of Economic News Events Say About Belief Overreaction in the Stock Market

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Bianchi
  • Sydney C. Ludvigson
  • Sai Ma

Abstract

We measure the nature and severity of a variety of belief distortions in market reactions to hundreds of economic news events using a new methodology that synthesizes estimation of a structural asset pricing model with algorithmic machine learning to quantify bias. We estimate that investors systematically overreact to perceptions about multiple fundamental shocks in a macro-dynamic system, generating asymmetric compositional effects when real-world events produce conflicting signals with counteracting market implications. We show that such events can lead the market to underreact to news, even when investors overreact to all shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Bianchi & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Sai Ma, 2024. "What Hundreds of Economic News Events Say About Belief Overreaction in the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 32301, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32301
    Note: AP EFG ME
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G4 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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