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The IPCC Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): Explained, Evaluated, Replaced

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  • Ivo Welch

Abstract

Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are perhaps the most influential economic policy analyses today. My paper evaluates their development, natural associations, logical consequences, and economic identification. All five SSP baseline scenarios are predicting scenarios that historical time-series analysis would consider empirically highly implausible. This alternative — econometric time-series analysis based on worldwide IPAT components — suggests alternative emission scenarios, mapping into expected radiative forcing of about RCP 6.5, with a reasonable plausibility range from RCP 4.5 to RCP 7.0.

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  • Ivo Welch, 2024. "The IPCC Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): Explained, Evaluated, Replaced," NBER Working Papers 32178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32178
    Note: EEE
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    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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