IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/32150.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trade War and Peace: U.S.-China Trade and Tariff Risk from 2015–2050

Author

Listed:
  • George A. Alessandria
  • Shafaat Y. Khan
  • Armen Khederlarian
  • Kim J. Ruhl
  • Joseph B. Steinberg

Abstract

We use U.S. import dynamics and a dynamic exporting model to estimate how expectations about U.S. tariffs on China have changed around the U.S.-China trade war. We find (i) there was no increase in the likelihood of a trade war before 2018; (ii) the trade war was initially expected to end quickly, but its expected duration grew substantially after 2020; and (iii) the trade war reduced the likelihood that China would face Non-normal Trade Relations tariffs in the future. Our findings imply that the expected mean future U.S. tariff on China rose more under President Biden than under President Trump.

Suggested Citation

  • George A. Alessandria & Shafaat Y. Khan & Armen Khederlarian & Kim J. Ruhl & Joseph B. Steinberg, 2024. "Trade War and Peace: U.S.-China Trade and Tariff Risk from 2015–2050," NBER Working Papers 32150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32150
    Note: IFM ITI
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w32150.pdf
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text is generally limited to series subscribers, however if the top level domain of the client browser is in a developing country or transition economy free access is provided. More information about subscriptions and free access is available at http://www.nber.org/wwphelp.html. Free access is also available to older working papers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alessandria, George & Khan, Shafaat Yar & Khederlarian, Armen, 2024. "Taking stock of trade policy uncertainty: Evidence from China’s pre-WTO accession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32150. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.