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Forward Return Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Mihir Gandhi
  • Niels Joachim Gormsen
  • Eben Lazarus

Abstract

We measure investors’ short- and long-term stock-return expectations using both options and survey data. These expectations at different horizons reveal what investors think their own short-term expectations will be in the future, or forward return expectations. While contemporaneous short-term expectations are not countercyclical across all data sources, we find that forward expectations are consistently countercyclical, and excessively so: in bad times, forward expectations are higher than justified by investors’ own subsequent short-term return expectations. This excess volatility in forward expectations helps account for excess volatility in prices, inelastic demand for equities, and stylized facts about the equity term structure.

Suggested Citation

  • Mihir Gandhi & Niels Joachim Gormsen & Eben Lazarus, 2023. "Forward Return Expectations," NBER Working Papers 31687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31687
    Note: AP IFM
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan M. Londono & Mehrdad Samadi, 2023. "The Price of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from Daily Options," International Finance Discussion Papers 1376, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G4 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance

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